Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 19.855504 21.601544 23.531573 25.843500 28.565420 31.704461 35.653454
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.082187 19.334103 22.004339 25.473912 29.975576 35.796525 44.229562
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.211096 17.710055 20.829951 25.147970 31.220655 39.924335 54.446241
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.871769 16.503704 19.924525 24.909165 32.423393 44.270599 67.131330
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.864569 15.573454 19.211876 24.749692 33.628404 48.952723 83.442587
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.940731 14.641012 18.357857 24.207475 34.059437 52.420426 100.217137
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.590411 14.444536 18.499286 25.170462 37.198684 62.315494 146.117403
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.992970 13.839123 17.963712 24.947314 38.129915 68.011025 191.184147
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.545444 13.408209 17.639475 25.015034 39.623000 75.904142 274.063776
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.182071 13.068934 17.417271 25.215881 41.433085 85.908807 444.365438
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.829033 12.717364 17.138992 25.268907 42.935747 96.266155 822.680758
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.447956 12.297588 16.713362 24.988132 43.601265 104.474239 1737.400698
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.144768 11.984076 16.445489 24.992092 45.024472 117.566857 18634.136970
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.825479 11.627627 16.079411 24.759887 45.808691 129.210944 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.528650 11.290417 15.721730 24.502715 46.479792 141.708780 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.264271 10.990795 15.407592 24.298674 47.265655 156.750222 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.029906 10.727224 15.137985 24.157016 48.215543 175.513689 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.755927 10.387683 14.714347 23.641390 47.906773 184.908811 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.710652 10.414918 14.941046 24.568772 52.515215 255.915395 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.508746 10.176213 14.672626 24.355655 53.243915 290.688506 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.356661 10.013063 14.532092 24.421226 55.022415 356.412892 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.229814 9.886084 14.449972 24.614341 57.388363 466.519913 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 7.092466 9.735622 14.314735 24.665370 59.252314 610.901239 NaN